Egypt-Wheat Stocks and Import Tenders During a Period of Civil Unrest
Report Highlights:
Egypt is transitioning through a period of heightened civil unrest at a time when its domestic wheat crop failed to lived up to earlier Government of Egypt (GOE) optimistic forecasts. Egypt’s marketing year (MY) 2012/13 wheat harvest is largely in line with FAS Cairo’s earlier April 2013 assessment. Trade sources confirm that domestic wheat production, despite the GOE’s hopes, has yielded lower than anticipated results. The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade (MoSIT) acknowledges that the 2013 harvest (April/May) has yielded approximately 3.5 million metric tons (MMT), falling short by about 230 thousand metric tons (TMT) below last year’s volume. Egypt has just tendered for 180 TMT of Ukrainian and Romanian soft wheat, its first tender since February 2013. Beyond the local crop’s shortfall, an additional constraint facing Egypt this year is inadequate silo storage space. The lack of sufficient silo storage space can potentially hinder the stockpiling of imported wheat now that Egypt has re-entered the international market.
Executive Summary
The Egyptian harvest commenced earlier than normal this year in Upper Egypt. Local farmers began to bring the crop in as early as April 8, 2013. Actual production has been lower than originally forecast by the Government of Egypt (GOE). Domestic wheat stocks are currently sufficient through the end of October 2013 at current consumption levels. Lower than expected production has forced Egypt to tender for wheat earlier than planned. The July 2 tender comes on the heels of the new Egyptian fiscal year (July/June) and in the midst of heightened civil unrest.
