After some decline in 2012, pork production is expected to increase in 2013 and 2014. This increase will take place on bigger industrial farms while production in the household sector is expected to remain stable. Investments in industrial pork production will continue. Beef prices remain high in 2013 supporting production increases. The total bovine animal number is expected to grow only in the household subsector where low cost production of beef concentrates. The number of dairy animals will contract insignificantly due to higher animal efficiency and stable demands for milk.
Pork imports are expected to decline in 2013-14 after reaching a peak in 2012 when Ukraine became the largest pork importer from Brazil. A trade ban on Brazilian pork introduced in early 2013 and partially lifted in July had limited impact on trade. Most of the import contraction took place at the expense of other major suppliers: Germany and Poland.
Exports of red meat are expected to contract in response to tighter import policy of Ukraine’s major importer – the Russian Federation. Ukrainian producers experienced multiple technical and veterinary issues during the year. In August of 2013 trade almost stopped for couple of days due to extended custom clearance procedures at the border. A strict trade regime is expected to continue in 2014. Exports to EU are unlikely even after possible Free Trade Agreement empowerment in November of 2013.
