Global orange production for 2012/13 is forecast to drop over 4 percent from the previous year to 51.3 million metric tons as declines in Brazil and the EU drive global fresh consumption down, fruit available for processing remains constant, and trade is virtually unchanged.
U.S. production is forecast down slightly to 8.0 million tons as projected droppage in Florida is the highest since the 1969/70 season (around 95 percent of the oranges are used for processing orange juice). Production in California is up slightly, where most of the oranges are used for fresh
consumption. U.S. exports are forecast to remain flat. Due to the uncertainty regarding the outcome of the mid-January cold weather event in California, this forecast assumes no impact on production or trade.
Brazil’s production is forecast to drop nearly 10 percent to 18.6 million tons based on average blooms following good crops the past two years. As a result, fresh consumption is reduced, while oranges for processing are forecast unchanged. Although by far the world’s largest producer, less than one percent is exported.
China’s production is forecast up slightly at 7.0 million tons, with rising consumption of both fresh and processed fruit constraining exportable supplies. China is forecast to remain the largest fresh consumer accounting for over 20 percent of global consumption. In June 2012, the State
Council released guidelines that commit to providing subsidies for orange seeds/seedlings as orange production is listed as one of the key sectors in agriculture development. Aiming to extend the supply, new varieties are being planted to harvest both earlier and later in the season.
EU production and fresh consumption are both forecast down 5 percent to 5.6 million tons and 5.0 million tons, respectively due to early spring bad weather conditions in Italy. Imports are forecast up slightly with South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco as the largest suppliers.
Mexico’s production is forecast to reach 3.9 million tons, up over 500,000 tons on improved weather conditions after last year’s drought. The gain is expected to augment both fresh consumption and processing, returning both to nearly pre-drought levels
Egypt’s production is forecast at a record 2.5 million tons, up 4 percent on favorable weather and an upswing in area harvested as new, young trees
start to bear fruit. Exports are forecast up 11 percent to 1.0 million tons as additional fruit is available to meet growing demand from the EU, Saudi
Arabia, and the Ukraine.
South African production is forecast up slightly at 1.5 million tons. As the largest exporter, South Africa accounts for over 25 percent of world trade and is forecast at a record 1.1 million tons. The EU and Russia represent half its export market.
Morocco had a smaller, drought-impacted crop, although subsequent rainfall reportedly improved the size and quality of the fruit. Production is forecast at less than 800,000 tons with exports forecast to remain near last year’s level.
South Korea’s imports are forecast at a record 180,000 tons due to rising demand. The implementation of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement reduced the import tariff making fresh fruit more available to the consumers.
