Summary
World production is forecast to expand 2 percent to a record 67.9 million metric tons as gains in China more than offset losses in the EU. Trade is forecast up slightly with exports projected at a new record 5.7 million tons.
China isthe world’s largest producer at a record 38.0 million tons. In just five years, China has expanded its share of global production to nearly 60
percent because of more efficient orchard management, greater government incentives, and continued area expansion in Western provinces. Meanwhile, consumption has doubled to 32.2 million tons, outpacing the growth in production and constraining exportable supplies. Consequently, exports, mostly to neighboring Asian markets, are virtually unchanged at 1.1 million tons.
Production in th eEU, the second largest producer, is forecast to fall 5 percent to 11.3 million tons. Favorable prices for processed products mean less supply for fresh consumption. Therefore, imports are expected to jump nearly 35 percent to 700,000 tons from a number of key markets. On the other hand, exports are forecast down 5 percent to 1.5 million tons. The EU remains the world’s largest exporter, with Russia as the major market.
U.S. apple production is virtually unchanged at 4.2 million tons based on recent industry data. Increased supplies, particularly for fresh use, are due to larger-than-expected harvest in Washington State, which offsets reduced crops from the Central and Eastern states damaged by multiple spring freezes. The National Agricultural Statistics Service will release a revised estimate in January 2013. Fresh domestic consumption is forecast up slightly at 2.2 million tons, while imports are unchanged at 175,000 tons. Exports are expected to climb 4 percent to 875,000 tons, fueled by demand from Asia, Middle East, and Central America. Neighboring Canada and Mexico remain the main markets.
Argentina’s crop is projected to jump 20 percent to a record 1.0 million tons on better yields and advanced horticultural practices. Consequently, exports are boosted to a new record 310,000 tons with Brazil the largest market.
Production in Russia is forecast up nearly 8 percent to 1.2 million tons due to intensive cultivation, favorable government incentives, and improvements in postharvest facilities. Russia is the world’s largest importer at a forecast 1.2 million tons; the major supplier is the EU.
Turkey’s production is expected to rise 7 percent to a new record 2.9 million tons. More commercial orchards are growing new, premium-priced varieties to supply the more profitable export markets. However, exports are virtually unchanged at 87,000 tons. Iraq has become a major market.
Chile’s production is projected down 4 percent to 1.3 million tons due to reduced profitability resulting from low prices. However, exports are raised to 800,000 tons, with the EU and the United States as key markets.
In Brazil, production is forecast down 3 percent to 1.2 million tons due to adverse weather and reduced planted area. Exports, however, are raised to 86,000 tons on strong demand from the EU (as a result of a smaller crop).
