Report Highlights:
The wheat production estimate for the 2012/13 Australian crop remains at 22.077MMT. Export estimates also remain at 18MMT but uncertainty surrounds the export figures due to export infrastructure challenges.
Final figures from the barley harvest indicate higher than expected yields which has in turn led to an increase in the total barley production estimate for 2012/13 to 7.1MMT.
Sorghum production estimates for 2012/13 have been further reduced to 1.7MMT to reflect smaller final planting areas and continuing adverse seasonal conditions.
Seasonal conditions
Since the last Grain and Feed Update seasonal conditions across Australia have remained varied with some areas along the east coast receiving very high rainfall and flooding while other areas have remained very dry. The 2012/13 Australian summer has been confirmed as the hottest on record with new extreme temperature records set in every state and territory.
This trend has continued with southeastern Australia experiencing a further extended heat wave during the first two weeks of March. Many parts of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania experienced multiple days of temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius above average and nights up to 6 degrees Celsius above average minimums.
The preliminary March to May outlook is for higher than normal rainfall across cropping areas of South Australia, western New South Wales (NSW), south-west Queensland and some areas of Western Australia. Tasmania, Victoria and the majority of the Western Australian wheat belt are expected to remain drier than normal. However, model accuracy is low at this point and forecasts are likely to change.
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