Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook April 2013
On April 10, 2013, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) its latest sugar supply and use projections for Mexico and the United States for fiscal year (FY) 2013. The USDA projects Mexico sugar production at 6.117 million metric tons (mt), an increase of 227,000 mt from last month. The USDA projection of deliveries for human consumption is unchanged at
4.200 million mt. The USDA projects ending stocks at 27 percent of consumption, or 1.135 million mt. The USDA projects exports residually at 1.520 million mt. Based on reliable information, the USDA expects 110,000 mt to be exported to third countries outside of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) area. Exports to the United States are projected at 1.410 million mt.
The USDA reduced its FY 2013 U.S. beet sugar forecast by 200,000 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 5.100 million STRV. The reduction was based on lower expected sugar production from the 2013/14 sugarbeet crop to be harvested prior to start of FY 2014. The USDA increased its forecast of Florida cane sugar production by 20,000 STRV to 1.850 million STRV based on processors’ reporting of better prospects. Total sugar production
(beet sugar plus cane sugar) is forecast at 8.980 million STRV.
The USDA increased sugar imports by 58,000 STRV to 3.036 million STRV. All of the increase is attributable to increased imports from Mexico. Based on pace to date, the USDA increased its forecast of deliveries for human consumption by 100,000 STRV to 11.480 million STRV. The USDA projects total ending-year stocks 222,000 STRV lower than last month at 2.136 million STRV. The implied ending stocks-to-use ratio is 18.0 percent, 2 percentage points lower than last month.
