The World Bank Group (WBG) Agriculture Action Plan 2013–15 summarizes critical challenges facing the global food and agriculture sector.Global population is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, and the world food-producing sector must secure food and nutrition for the growing population through increased production and reduced waste. Production increase must occur in a context where resources necessary for food production, such as land and water, are even scarcer in a more crowded world, and thus the sector needs to be far more effi cient in utilizing productive resources. Further, in the face of global climate change, the world is required to change the ways to conduct economic activities.
Fisheries and aquaculture must address many of these diffi cult challenges. Especially with rapidly expanding aquaculture production
around the world, there is a large potential of further and rapid increases in fi sh supply—an important source of animal protein for human
consumption. During the last three decades, capture fi sheries production increased from 69 million to 93 million tons; during the same time,
world aquaculture production increased from 5 million to 63 million tons (FishStat). Globally, fish currently represents about 16.6 percent of
animal protein supply and 6.5 percent of all protein for human consumption (FAO 2012). Fish is usually low in saturated fats, carbohydrates,
and cholesterol and provides not only high-value protein but also a wide range of essential micronutrients, including various vitamins,
minerals, and polyunsaturated omega-3 fatty acids (FAO 2012). Thus, even in small quantities, provision of fi sh can be eff ective in addressing
food and nutritional security among the poor and vulnerable populations around the globe.
In some parts of the world and for certain species, aquaculture has expanded at the expense of natural environment (for example, shrimp
aquaculture and mangrove cover) or under technology with high input requirements from capture fi sheries (for example, fishmeal). However,
some aquaculture can produce fi sh effi ciently with low or no direct input. For example, bivalve species such as oysters, mussels, clams, and
scallops are grown without artifi cial feeding; they feed on materials that occur naturally in their culture environment in the sea and lagoons.
Silver carp and bighead carp are grown with planktons proliferated through fertilization and the wastes and leftover feed materials for
fed species in multispecies aquaculture systems (FAO 2012). While the proportion of non-fed species in global aquaculture has declined
relative to higher trophic-level species of fi sh and crustaceans over the past decades, these fi sh still represent a third of all farmed food fi sh
production, or 20 million tons (FAO 2012). Further, production effi ciency of fed species has improved. For example, the use of fi shmeal and
fi sh oil per unit of farmed fi sh produced has declined substantially as refl ected in the steadily declining inclusion levels of average dietary
fi shmeal and fi sh oil within compound aquafeeds (Tacon and Metian 2008). Overall, a 62 percent increase in global aquaculture production
was achieved when the global supply of fi shmeal declined by 12 percent during the 2000–08 period (FAO 2012)
Many of the fi shers and fi sh farmers in developing countries are smallholders. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that
55 million people were engaged in capture fi sheries and aquaculture in 2010, while small-scale fi sheries employ over 90 percent of the
world’s capture fi shers (FAO 2012). To these small-scale producers fi sh are both sources of household income and nutrients, and sustainable
production and improved effi ciency would contribute to improve their livelihoods and food security. Sustainably managing marine and
coastal resources, including fi sh stock and habitat, would also help building and augmenting resilience of coastal communities in the face
of climate change threats.
One important feature of this food-producing sector is that fi sh is highly traded in international markets. According to the FAO (2012), 38
percent of fi sh produced in the world was exported in 2010. This implies that there are inherent imbalances in regional supply and regional
demand for fi sh, and international trade—through price signals in markets—provides a mechanism to resolve such imbalances (Anderson
2003). Therefore, it is important to understand the global links of supply and demand of fi sh to discuss production and consumption of
fi sh in a given country or a region, while understanding the drivers of fi sh supply and demand in major countries and regions is essential in
making inferences about global trade outcomes. Developing countries are well integrated in the global seafood trade, and fl ow of seafood
exports from developing countries to developed countries has been increasing. In value, 67 percent of fi shery exports by developing
countries are now directed to developed countries (FAO 2012).
This report off ers a global view of fi sh supply and demand. Based on trends in each country or group of countries for the production of
capture fi sheries and aquaculture and those for the consumption of fi sh, driven by income and population growth, IFPRI’s newly improved
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT model) simulates outcomes of interactions across
countries and regions and makes projections of global fi sh supply and demand into 2030.This work builds on the publication Fish to 2020 by Delgado and others (2003).
Throughout the report, the discussions are centered around three themes: (1) health of global capture fi sheries, (2) the role of aquaculture in
fi lling the global fi sh supply-demand gap and potentially reducing the pressure on capture fi sheries, and (3) implications of changes in the
global fi sh markets on fi sh consumption, especially in China and Sub-Saharan Africa.
