On July 22, 2013, the Ministry of Agriculture’s released the Fourth Advance Estimates for the Indian crop year 2012/13 (July/June), wherein grain production was estimated at a near record 255.4 million metric tons (MMT). While there were minor adjustments to individual crops, the estimate of total grain production was unchanged from the May 3 third advance estimate. The government estimates a nearrecord grain harvest (only 1.5 percent lower than last year’s record 259.3 MMT) despite a delayed and below normal 2012 monsoon and drought-like conditions in some parts of the country. The Government of India increased production estimates for rice, corn, pulses and sorghum, and lowered the wheat production estimate.
The Indian crop year 2012/13 covers grain from July 2012 to June 2013 and includes rice, coarse grains and pulse crops harvested last fall and this spring (MY 2012/13), and wheat and barley crops harvested in March-May of 2013 (MY 2013/14). The government estimates production of corn and pulses for MY 2012/13 at a record 22.2 MMT and 18.5 MMT, respectively, due to higher harvest of the rabi(harvested in March/April) season crop. Wheat production for MY 2013/14, which is marginally lower, is still a near record 92.5 MMT, despite field reports of a significant decline in yield caused by lower grain setting due to unfavorable weather during February-March (See IN3076 and IN3055) and market factors that suggest the crop is lower than the government estimate. The Review of Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India for the month of June, 2013 reports that food price inflation in the last six months has been largely fueled by high prices of cereals (see Annexure II). Typically, the fourth advance estimates are subject to minor revisions when the final estimates for the Indian crop year 2012/13 will be released by the end of 2013.
