Post forecasts broiler production to rebound by 3 percent in 2014. This increase will likely be driven by higher exports stimulated by the depreciation of the Brazilian currency and lower feed costs due to record soybean and corn crops estimated for 2013/14 crop year. Post sources also identify the high level of consumer debt in Brazil as a constraint to increase domestic demand. The outlook for turkey production and exports is for moderate growth next year.
Broiler production is forecast to grow by 3 percent in 2014, as compared to Post’s revised downward production level in 2013. FAS Brasilia believes that a production estimate at 13.1 million metric tons in 2014 reflects the current expectations of producers to continue with a strategy to adjust supply and demand for boilers. Producers are likely to benefit from reduced production costs in 2014 due to estimated record soybean and corn crops combined with higher exports. The only constraint affecting next year’s forecast is the slowdown in the growth path of domestic consumption due to the high level of indebtedness of Brazilian consumers and higher competition from beef and pork.Post revised 2013 broiler production to 12.7 million metric tons, a drop of nearly two percent from our forecast at the beginning of the year, reflecting the problems faced by Brazilian producers with high feed costs during the first quarter of the year and their decision to cut production by 5 to 10 percent.
