FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia’s imports of cattle to decrease by approximately 15 percent in 2014 because of increasing debt carried by livestock importers and delays in related subsidy payments. FAS/Moscow also forecasts a decrease in domestic beef production next year given the anticipated rate of slaughter in 2013 and the resulting decrease in beginning cattle inventories. Total 2014 live swine imports are forecast to fall by 17 percent in 2014 as a result of increased domestic production and trade restrictions due to disease outbreaks in Europe. Russian pork production is forecast to increase by five percent in 2014 which, in turn, is anticipated to lead to a five percent decrease in imports.
Cattle and Beef
FAS/Moscow forecasts 2014 year-end cattle inventories to decrease slightly (to 18.935 million head) as Russian dairies are expected to continue to slaughter less productive cattle which are aging out, and, in certain circumstances, slaughter younger, less productive cattle to be replaced by imported and/or domestically produced breeding animals capable of producing greater yields. Because 2013 year-end inventories are marginally decreased as slaughter rates are estimated to increase by nearly four percent over the course of the year, FAS/Moscow forecasts a corresponding decrease in domestic beef production in 2014 (down less than two percent to 1.38 MMT).
FAS/Moscow forecasts Russia’s imports of cattle to decrease by approximately 15 percent in 2014 (to 110,000 head) because of increasing debts being carried by Russian livestock importers and delays in related subsidy payments. Moreover, 2014 beef imports are forecast to increase slightly over 2013 levels (by two percent to 1.02 MMT) as importers are expected to make better use of available TRQ volumes and as neighboring CIS countries (e.g., Belarus), who are able to export beef to Russia dutyfree, attempt to compensate for decreased domestic production. Consumption is expected to remain relatively flat (16.7 kg per capita) due to decreasing domestic production.
