Uganda’s economic outlook is positive according to forecasts. Importers and food producers in the country expect this to lead to increased spending on a wider variety of food products, boosting consumer-oriented and intermediate imports. Access to the Ugandan market is facilitated by regional
trade integration and importing companies that are established and diversified, while challenges to US exporters include high freight costs and long transit times.
Economic Situation
Ugandan GDP growth has been strong and is projected to increase in the coming years, though some recent growth potential has lost to inflation rate stabilization. The African Development Bank (AfDB) predicts that growth will recover to 4.9% in 2013 and 5.5% in 2014, while the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) expects modest 2013 growth expanding to 6.8% average over 2014-16 from foreign investment and demand. The EIU also projects that growth will expand further as oil production begins, to 12.5% in 2017.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the AfDB, Uganda’s inflation rate had stabilized by the end of 2012 through a combination of monetary policies and macro conditions. Inflation declined each month from October 2011 to October 2012, the last month for which the IMF
reported data. The AfDB expects inflation to remain low in the near term, while the IMF states that continued stability is contingent on public sector discipline. The EIU predicts that commodity prices and fiscal policy will keep inflation to 6.7% in 2013-15, with a pre-election spike of 15.4% in 2016 before decreasing again.
